2026 Global Shipping Market Outlook
Date:2026-02-25View:3Tags:Pipe fitting,Alloy steel pipe,Epoxy pipe
I. Three Core Variables Determining Freight Rates in 2026
1. Supply Side: The Record-Breaking "Tonnage Tsunami" Faces its Final Impact
As of early 2025, the global container ship order book remained at a historically high level (approximately 25%-30%). Based on shipbuilding cycles, 2026 will be one of the peak years for deliveries of these 10,000 TEU mega-ships ordered in 2022-2023.
Forecast: Even considering some delayed deliveries and a rebound in scrapping, the global shipping capacity growth rate (TEU miles) in 2026 is expected to exceed 5%, far exceeding the average demand growth rate of the past decade.
Pressure Points: Main routes (Far East-Europe/West Coast) will face severe overcapacity, especially for 24,000 TEU ultra-large vessels, which can only be deployed on a few main routes, leading to localized "congestion overcapacity."
2. Demand Side: A "Moderate Rise" After the End of the Inventory Replenishment Cycle in Europe and the US
Macroeconomic Background: Inflation rates in major European and American economies are expected to return to normal in 2026, but the lagged effects of high interest rates may suppress consumer spending. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that global GDP growth will remain in a moderate range of 3.0%-3.2% in 2026, with trade volume growth expected to be in line with or slightly lower than GDP growth.
Destocking Process: The destocking cycle of 2023-2024 will basically end in 2025. 2026 will see a cautious inventory replenishment cycle. However, unlike the panic buying of 2021-2022, inventory replenishment in 2026 will be more rational, characterized by "small batches and high frequency," offering limited support for explosive growth in shipping volume.
3. New Rules of the Game: Environmental Regulations and Alliance Restructuring
Carbon Tax and Carbon Intensity (CII) Regulation: 2026 is a critical juncture for the decarbonization of the shipping industry. With the full implementation of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and the launch of FuelEU Maritime, the economic viability of older, inefficient vessels has declined sharply. This will lead to slower sailing becoming the norm and force a large number of older vessels that do not meet environmental requirements to be scrapped or retrofitted in 2026. This will, to some extent, offset the pressure of new vessel deliveries and provide an "environmental floor" for freight rates.
Alliance Transformation: The restructuring of major shipping alliances (such as the new structure following the dissolution of the 2M alliance) will be finalized in early 2025, and 2026 will be the first full year of operation for these new alliances. To compete for market share, these new alliances may trigger periodic price wars on certain routes, especially during the off-season.
