Analysis of China's foreign trade situation at the beginning of 2025
Date:2025-03-06View:153Tags:Carbon welded steel pipe,API welded pipe,Structural steel pipe
At the beginning of 2025, China's foreign trade ushered in a critical start in a complex and changing global environment. Despite the fluctuations in external demand and the intensification of geopolitical games, China has demonstrated strong pressure resistance by virtue of the resilience of the industrial chain, the flexible use of policy toolboxes and the development of emerging markets. This article will deeply analyze the opportunities and challenges of China's foreign trade in 2025 from four dimensions: global economic background, policy drivers, industry performance and future trends.
1. Global economic environment: recovery differentiation and regional reconstruction
Demand differentiation of major economies
European and American markets: The US economic growth rate has slowed down, inflationary pressure still exists, and consumer spending has become cautious; under the dual pressure of green transformation and high energy costs, the EU has structurally adjusted its import demand and increased its dependence on cost-effective industrial products and new energy equipment.
Emerging markets: ASEAN, the Middle East, Latin America and other regions have become growth engines. The deepening implementation of RCEP has promoted the reduction of trade costs within the region, and the "de-oiling" strategy of Middle Eastern countries has spawned the demand for cooperation in infrastructure and manufacturing.
Supply chain regionalization accelerates
The trend of "nearshore outsourcing" and "friendly shore outsourcing" in the global industrial chain continues, but China still occupies a core position in the supply of intermediate products with its complete manufacturing system and digital transformation advantages. In January 2025, China's exports of intermediate products to ASEAN increased by 12% year-on-year, with outstanding performance in areas such as semiconductors and auto parts.
2. Policy-driven: Stable foreign trade and high-quality opening go hand in hand
Domestic policy increase
The "new three" of foreign trade continue to exert force: the export of new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products continues to grow at a high rate, and the export volume increased by 18% year-on-year at the beginning of 2025. The supporting policies focus on the mutual recognition of technical standards and the construction of overseas after-sales service networks.
The cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zone is expanded: the number of pilot cities has increased to 200, and the overseas warehouse intelligent logistics system has been upgraded, which has promoted the proportion of B2B exports to exceed 40%.
International cooperation is deepened
The "Belt and Road" has improved quality and efficiency: the number of China-Europe trains has increased by 15% year-on-year, and the Central Asia Summit has promoted cooperation in the entire energy and agricultural industry chain.
CPTPP and DEPA negotiations breakthrough: China actively connects with international high standards in digital trade, state-owned enterprise rules and other fields, and enhances its voice in multilateral trade.
III. Industry performance: Structural upgrading and green transformation resonance
Traditional industry upgrade breakthrough
Labor-intensive products such as textiles and home appliances maintain their share through the "brand overseas + flexible customization" model. In January 2025, the export volume of smart home appliances increased by 9% year-on-year.
High-energy-consuming industries such as steel and chemicals were hit by carbon tariffs, and exports fell by 5% year-on-year, but low-carbon metallurgical technology cooperation projects were accelerated in the EU and Southeast Asia.
Green trade has become a new growth pole
China's wind power equipment accounts for more than 50% of the global market share, and export orders for hydrogen electrolyzers have surged;
The EU's "Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism" (CBAM) was officially implemented, forcing domestic companies to accelerate ESG compliance, and the demand for carbon footprint certification services has exploded.
Breakthrough in the digitalization of service trade
Digital service exports increased by 22% year-on-year, cloud computing and artificial intelligence solutions were widely used in countries along the "Belt and Road", and cultural IP overseas drove the transaction volume of game and film and television copyrights to a new high.
IV. Challenges and risks: "headwind" factors that cannot be ignored
Geopolitics and trade barriers
The US and Europe have upgraded their "de-risking" strategies toward China, and export controls in the fields of semiconductors and biotechnology have become stricter;
Local protectionism in developing countries has risen, and some countries have raised tariffs or set localized production requirements.
Exchange rate and cost pressure
The US dollar interest rate fluctuates at a high level, the RMB exchange rate fluctuates more, and the exchange risk of small and medium-sized enterprises has increased;
Domestic labor and logistics costs continue to rise, and some orders have shifted to Southeast Asia.
Test of supply chain resilience
The frequent occurrence of "black swan" events such as the Red Sea shipping crisis and regional interruptions in chip supply has increased the difficulty of enterprise inventory management.
V. Outlook and suggestions: Leap to "new quality foreign trade"
Short-term strategy
Expand the dividends of RCEP rules of origin and optimize the layout of regional industrial chains;
Use export credit insurance and foreign exchange derivatives to hedge risks.
Long-term layout
Increase investment in digital trade infrastructure and build a global node for "Silk Road e-commerce";
Promote green technology and standards to "go global" and seize the opportunity in the carbon neutral market.
Enterprise transformation direction
Extend from OEM export to branding and service, and build overseas localized operation capabilities;
Rely on industrial Internet to achieve real-time supply chain response and improve risk resistance.
